Federal immigration targets stay reduced through 2027

Our take: Population growth was the silent engine behind every rent-growth assumption of the last cycle. It is now a headwind in student-heavy and newcomer-heavy submarkets, and roughly neutral elsewhere.

In your underwriting: Student rentals and newcomer-corridor buildings need demand evidence, not extrapolation. Ask for current-year occupancy and pre-leasing, not last cycle's.

Student-rental buyers: this is the single most important macro line in your underwriting right now.