Gross domestic product by industry, June 2026

Our take: A 0.3% monthly GDP print is tepid—and if June's trend holds, you're looking at sub-2% annualized growth heading into H2. That's the exact environment where cap rates compress on defensive multifamily but refinancing risk tightens for leveraged sponsors.

In your underwriting: Weaker growth justifies slightly lower rent-growth assumptions in underwriting but may pressure lenders to tighten debt-service coverage minimums and stress rates, offsetting any upside from stabilized spreads.