Building permits, July 2026

Our take: A 17% collapse in permit values is a flashing red light—starts dropping now become units available 18–24 months forward, which will crater rents in saturated secondary markets while tightening supply in constrained core zones. Investors betting on Class-B rent growth in oversupplied metros need to reprice expectations sharply downward.

In your underwriting: Rent growth assumptions and terminal cap rates must shift lower in metros with elevated pipeline risk; simultaneously, supply-constrained urban cores justify holding or slightly raising rent projections to reflect relative scarcity.