Gross domestic product, income and expenditure, second quarter 2026

Our take: A 0.8% quarterly bounce is modest but confirms the soft-landing scenario holding—no recession tail risk for now, which means rent growth will track inflation rather than compress, but don't expect wage-led tenant affordability to loosen either. For asset returns, this is goldilocks: enough growth to support occupancy, not enough to trigger aggressive cap rate compression.

In your underwriting: Rent growth assumptions can stay with inflation and historical spread; DSCR stress scenarios remain in the 1.15–1.20× range rather than needing deeper cuts, and financing terms should hold steady without recession-driven lender compression.