Payroll employment, earnings and hours, and job vacancies, June 2026

The number of employees receiving pay and benefits from their employer measured as "payroll employment" in the Survey of Employment, Payrolls and Hours was little changed (+4,800; +0.0%) in June, following an increase of 45,000 (+0.2%) in May. On a year-on-year basis, payroll employment was up by 155,000 (+0.8%) in June.

Our take: Near-flat monthly payroll growth signals labour market stalling—rents will soften if wage income weakens further, squeezing tenant creditworthiness and pushing vacancy risk higher into 2026.

In your underwriting: Tighten rent growth assumptions and increase vacancy buffers by 0.5–1.0% in pro forma; stress test DSCR with 2–3% lower-than-market rent collections to account for tenant payment risk.

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