Commercial rents in key Canadian economic markets, second quarter 2026

Our take: Q2 2026 rent data will show whether office and retail weakness is finally stabilizing or if service-sector commercial property remains a long-term problem — critical context for mixed-use developments with ground-floor retail. For pure residential, this matters less directly, but persistent commercial softness limits your upside on conversion plays and forces stricter vacancy budgets on commercial tenants in your pro formas.

In your underwriting: If commercial rents are still declining or flat, tighten your ground-floor retail lease assumptions and increase vacancy allowance on any mixed-use deals; for residential-only plays, the data confirms staying disciplined on residential rent growth expectations rather than banking on broad commercial recovery tailwinds.