National tourism indicators, second quarter 2026

Real tourism gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.4% in the second quarter of 2026, following a 0.5% increase in the first quarter. In the second quarter, 1.77% of nominal GDP was attributable to tourism.

Our take: Anemic tourism growth signals weak demand for hotel/hospitality income properties and threatens the short-term rental segment that's already under pressure from municipal regulations; operators banking on tourism-driven cash flow need to recalibrate return expectations downward.

In your underwriting: Reduce annual rent growth assumptions and increase vacancy buffers for hotel and STR-dependent properties; stress-test debt service coverage against flat-to-declining RevPAR forecasts.

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