Canada's population estimates: Age and gender, 2026

The population of Canada reached an estimated 41,798,407 people on July 1, 2026, an increase of 189,425 people (+0.5%) from July 1, 2025. This is the lowest annual July-to-July (or June to June before 1946) growth in the total size of the population since 1944/1945 (+126,000; +1.0%) and the lowest growth in percentage since 1915/1916 (+20,000; +0.3%).

Our take: Canada's population growth has collapsed to 0.5% annually—the slowest pace in over a century—which directly contradicts the immigration-fueled rent growth thesis that underpinned most multifamily underwriting from 2020–2024. Investors banking on 3–4% annual tenant growth need to recalibrate assumptions downward and stress higher vacancy buffers.

In your underwriting: Rent growth assumptions and tenant demand forecasts must drop materially; increase vacancy contingency from 5–7% to 8–10% and reduce terminal cap rate compression expectations, as population-driven rent tailwinds are no longer a reliable cushion for marginal deals.

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