Economic characteristics and the likelihood of first birth, 2017 to 2023

Canada's declining fertility has led to increased interest in the factors that influence the decision to have children. A new study released today examines how income and employment characteristics relate to the likelihood of having a first child.

Our take: Canada's persistently low fertility rate is a structural headwind for multifamily demand growth—fewer first-time parents means fewer household formations and less need for family-sized rental stock in the medium term. Income volatility is now a key predictor of childbearing, which signals renters are delaying family decisions due to affordability anxiety, not just preference shifts.

In your underwriting: Assume lower rent growth in 2–3 bedroom units and widen vacancy buffers for family-oriented properties, as demand drivers are eroding faster than typical market-to-market assumptions capture.

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